Just as I had expected , BJP faces loss in Vidhan Sabha by-elections across the country !! But there's no reason to blame Modi or Modi wave for it or even BJP's stance on Love-Jihad in it !! like some idiot media journalists are doing !! Here r the reasons why I had expected it and Y we cant blame it on Modi :
1) By-Elections do not have the crucial element of ' Government Formation ' like the main elections have !! They usually have no impact on government formation , and thus , the number of people coming out to vote is less than the main elections !! And it is an unwritten rule of Indian elections that BJP always wins when the voting percentage is high , and faces damage to the extent of losing the elections !!
Take for instance Mumbai had a voting percentage of 41% in 2009 and congress-ncp won !! In 2014 , it was 53 % and BJP-ShivSena won all seats !!
2)Many are blaming BJP taking a "stand" against Love Jihad for its debacle in UP !! Which is again false !! Uttar Pradesh has 4 way politics , that is , there are 4 major political parties !! BJP,BSP,SP and Congress !! Now , BSP , which won 0 seats in Lok Sabha Elections , decided not to contest any of the bypolls in UP !! Thus , UP polls became a 3 way fight !! 2 important voters of BSP , dalits n muslims , went to congress n sp respectively !! This ,combined with the factor that the voter turnout was low compared to LS ,helped them gain in UP , just like Lalu-Nitish alliance helped them gain against BJP in Bihar !!
3) as I already said , by-elections do not involve the crucial element of government formation n thus , these elections entirely depend upon local factors !! thus , there is no question of Modi factor playing a role here as Modi is not gonna form any government !!
4) as BJP was holding 26 out of 33 Vidhan Sabha seats that went for by-elections , it was difficult to retain 26 seats !! A seat won in the main election will always be difficult to retain for BJP in by polls !! Take for example , even in Vadodara LS seat , where BJP had won with a margin of 5,70,000 in May , it won with a margin of only 3,28,000 !! bekoz many people who voted in May to form Modi government didnt cum out to vote this time !!
As for the BJP , these results only and only mean that the party cannot afford to relax , as the old enemies like Lalu-Nitish , SP-BSP and in future maybe even Trinamool-CPM may unite and play games like the BSP played this time !! It doesnt mean that Modi-Wave has vanished or punctured !! However , there should not be any over-dependance on Modi Factor !!
Its surprising that how some paid media journalists , are deliberately misguiding people with all their nonsense analysis !! If an ordinary person like me can understand this ,so can they !! Their " Analysis " says that Modi wave is getting punctured n god knows wat !! These people had hailed Rahul Gandhi's leadership when congress had won 2009 elections !!! However , I wonder , y didnt they save the same thing on rahul gandhi ,which they r saying about Modi now , when congress lost 2014 elections so badly !! Within 100 days of takeover of Amit Shah as BJP chief , they are expecting BJP to sweep each and every election !! Any single loss wud mean that " Modi Wave is diminishing " !! These same media " experts " have never ever blamed any debacle of congress on sonia and rahul gandhi !!
The media " experts " say , BJP is nothing without Modi !!
But then , which party is ever powerful without its most popular leader ?? What is SP without Mulayam and family ?? What is BSP without Mayawati ?? What is congress without Gandhi family ?? infact , it was Indian National Congress that played a role in Independence movement !! When Indira Gandhi quit that party in 1969 and formed her own party Congress [R] which later came to b known as Congress [I] , and fought 1971 elections , she defeated the original Congress party , and her party became the present congress !! So When the party which helped bring independence itself lost elections when its most popular leader Indira quit , how does one single out and expect BJP as a party to be more powerful and popular than its most powerful n popular leaders ???? While BJP has atleast produced a wide range of popular leaders , most other parties have only produced popular families !! So how come only single out BJP ??
While its ironic how even many BJP supporters , fall for paid media shit despite knowing that they r paid , I wonder wat these media spokesperson will say about " Modi Wave " if we win Maharashtra and Haryana assemble elections ,which we have huge chances of winning !!
